What a disappointing result. After a few days of waiting, at the very least Biden is currently leading in both the overall vote count and enough states to get the required 270 electoral votes to win the presidency. At the time of writing, The Associated Press has called 264 electoral votes for Biden and 214 for Trump. Among Trump’s votes are Florida and Texas, which people had thought might flip to the Democrats. Also, it looks as if the House will remain in the Democrats control, while the Republicans may still control the Senate. This is a very different situation from the ‘Blue Wave’ people were thinking would happen when looking at polls before the election.
However, Trump and the Republican campaign are still throwing everything and the kitchen sink to prevent Biden and the Democrats from winning. This includes attacking the legitimacy of the voting system and using lawsuits in the states of Georgia and Michigan in attempts to stop them from counting votes (the Michigan case was tossed out and the Georgia case was dismissed) [1]. Not only this, but due to how close the results are in some states, recounts are, or likely will be, done to confirm the results are correct (such as Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina) [2].
Opinion- While I do not often present a personal view, these results are horrifying. Just under half of the voters in the US are willing to overlook all the terrible things Trump has done. While a Trump win or even a Republican win in the Senate (thus a power split between the Democrats and Republicans), may be good for the US economy and the stock market in the short-term (less regulation and no changes to taxes), in the long-term it will cause the US to fall behind in many key future sectors, such as renewable energy.
Aside from the election, SARS-CoV-2 still rages [3]. Globally, there have been almost 50 million cases and the daily case rate is now above 600,000, with the US making up over 100,000 of those. The US has reached 10 million cases and is adding over 1,000 deaths per day to their total of over 240,000. France has the second-highest daily new cases at approximately 60,000 a day, with daily deaths around 400. To go along with the increase in daily cases, the world is seeing the daily deaths tending exponentially upwards as well.
On the Brexit front, a deal is looming, while the final deadline looms larger. The transition period will end on the 31st of December, at which point the UK will be truly separated from the EU unless a deal is done. The UK and EU are still talking about a deal and progress has been made, but there are still reportedly major differences between them [4].
Markets around the world are up for the week. Of the indices I follow, the NASDAQ is up the most (9%), on tech hopes that the power split in the US will ensure there is little-to-no extra regulation. Other indices are up as the election continues, with each update reducing volatility and giving investors more of an insight into what the next four years will look like.
References
[1] M. Sherman and J. Gresko, "With counting winding down, Trump team pushes legal fights," 6 November 2020. [Online]. Available: https://apnews.com/.
[2] P. Johnson, "Donald Trump has called for recounts in the US election. Here's how they work in every crucial state," ABC News, 7 November 2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.abc.net.au/.
[3] Worldometer, "COVID-19 Coronavirus Pandemic," 31 October 2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.worldometers.info/.
[4] S. Payne and J. Brunsden, "Johnson to take stock of Brexit talks in call with von der Leyen," Financial Times, 7 November 2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.ft.com/.
